A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."