Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
